Common Sense Political Thought™
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A low-risk strategy?

 

John Hinderaker of Powerline, quoting Michael Barone, quoting Mr. Hinderaker (is that circular enough?):

 

But here's one point Hinderaker comes up with [Ed.: Actually, Deacon made this point first] that I had not thought of and, as far as I know, no one else has raised either. "If the administration knew Saddam didn't have. . . weapons [of mass destruction], then it also knew its 'pretext' would be exposed as soon as the invasion was complete. No one would be dumb enough to go to war on the basis of a claim that was not only wrong but would quickly be shown to be wrong."

 

Sister Toldjah has expended a significant amount of bandwidth reminding her readers that the Democrats, including the then President of the United States (who presumably had access to all classified information), all accepted the intelligence assessments that Iraq still had, and was probably working on additional, banned weapons.

 

She has noted, more than once, that if President Bush lied (meaning; knowingly made false statements) about the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, so did the Democrats, including President Clinton.

 

That ought to be blatantly obvious, and if no one had previously raised the point Mr. Hinderaker and Paul Mirengoff (the Deacon) raised, it is because Republicans thought it to be so obvious to anyone with any common sense that it didn’t need to be said.

 

(There’s an anti-Semitic undercurrent out there suggesting that the Israeli intelligence service, Mossad, knew the information was false, but not only kept that from the United States and the United Kingdom, but deliberately fed false information to the CIA, to get the US to take out Iraq, but that’s the subject of a future article.)

 

So, why are the Democrats trying to make such an issue of this?  After all, if it is somehow proven that President Bush knew there were no WMD in Iraq, then it makes their probable 2008 presidential nominee, Hillary Clinton, and their immediate past president, her estranged husband, liars as well.

 

In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members … It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons.  Hillary Clinton, October 10, 2002

 

Mr. Mirengoff has the beginning of an answer:

 

Driving down an incumbent president's popularity can only help the out-of-power party. I think the Democrats will do at least marginally better in both 2006 and 2008 if Bush is viewed unfavorably and if the Republican party is seen as the party that deceitfully took us to war in the name of WMD that didn't exist. In any event, when a president is fighting a war that's perceived as not going well, and a primary justification for the war hasn't materialized, it's asking too much of any party (and certainly the Democrats) not to make an issue out of it. The Democrats have found a low risk strategy for doing so.

 

If Mr. Mirengoff is right (and I think that he is), such a strategy can be low-risk if and only if the Democrats are assuming that the voters are just plain stupid.  Former President Clinton told everyone that yes, Iraq had banned weapons, and even justified a bombing campaign in December of 1998 (coincidentally, the day before the House impeachment vote was scheduled) on that basis.  Several Clinton Administration foreign policy officials were saying the same thing, Senator Clinton said the same thing, and most of the Senate Democrats said the same thing.  Leaders of several foreign countries, including those who faced democratic elections and popular discontent over the Iraq invasion said the same thing.  Saddam Hussein’s behavior reinforced the assessment that he still had WMD; he forced out the original UNSCOM inspectors in 1998, and kept his own country under harsh economic sanctions since then, actions that can only be seen as irrational (at least by Western thinking) if he no longer had WMD.  And in the midst of several leaks from the CIA, and a purported “battle” between the CIA and President Bush, there has been no serious story that the CIA had warned President Bush that the information he was using was false.

 

All that the Democrats have is the fact that no WMD were found in Iraq (and that’s a pretty big thing), that the war is primarily identified with President Bush (as though the Democrats seriously opposed it), and Joseph Wilson saying he didn’t find evidence in Niger (and Ambassador Wilson’s history, recent history, of lying has been thoroughly documented).  To base so heavy a strategy on so little evidence, and against what plain common sense tells people, has to be a high-risk strategy – unless there is a basic assumption that the voters are simply stupid.

 

After all, there are plenty of people out there telling the voters the same thing this poor site has said, that the Democrats implying that President Bush knowingly lied on this simply makes no sense, and that there is so much evidence to the contrary, out there and easily available, that the Democrats’ strategy makes sense only if they believe that the voters are stupid.

 

It is, in effect, simply another version of the Big Lie technique: if they repeat it loudly enough and often enough, it will come to be taken as the truth.  It’s going to be the obligation of the conservatives to make certain that the lie is challenged.

 

Posted by Dana                       Saturday, November 5, 2005                  Permanent Link




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