I found this very encouraging article through an unexpected pingback from Right Wing News. I hadn’t realized that our friend Donald Douglas was posting there — I was guessing Sister Toldjah — but Dr Douglas is always an excellent source for finding the top scholarly articles on political science. (He’s an associate professor of political science, so that ought to be expected!)
House Overview: Could 2010 Be the “Year of the Angry White Senior?
September 3, 2009
Assessing the Climate
“You could feel the ground moving,” said GOP California Rep. Kevin McCarthy of his recess candidate recruitment tour. The Republican base he saw is “much more motivated than you’ve seen in years.”
No question, August proved cathartic for voters and chaotic for congressional Democrats. But way before the town hall meetings during recess, there were ample signs for Democrats to fear for their careers in 2010. First and foremost, the midterm electorate appears tailor-made for Republicans, even in ways it wasn’t in 1994.
As The Hotline’s Amy Walter wisely pointed out, 1994 became the “angry white male” election because those who were displeased with the direction of the country were “more engaged than those who just two years earlier were voting for Bill Clinton and singing ‘don’t stop thinking about tomorrow.’” But “angry” is only a third of “angry white male,” and anger is only part of the story today.
True enough, the gender gap was the exit poll takeaway of the 1990s, and encouraged cultural observers’ perceptions of the Republican Revolution. In 1996, Bill Clinton won 54 percent to 38 percent among women, but lost men 44 percent to 43 percent. And as recently as 2000, Democrats were winning the two-party presidential vote by 11 points among women but losing by 11 points among men.
Today’s divide, however, is the generation gap – no, make that gulf – that characterized President Obama’s victory in 2008. In 1992 and 2000, Bill Clinton and Al Gore performed just slightly better among voters 60 and older than they did among voters 18 to 29 years of age. But in 2008, Obama won 66 percent of voters 18 to 29 and just 45 percent of voters 65 and older – a staggering 21 point difference.
Much has been made about how this disparity in support poses a big long-term problem for the GOP. That’s true, assuming younger voters maintain their current outlook towards the political parties as they age. But aside from flurries of stories about angry senior citizens packing town halls, precious little attention has been given to why the generation gulf poses a grave short-term threat to Democrats in 2010.
There’s a lot more to that article, and the author, David Wasserman, makes a statistics-based argument, but the statistics aren’t good for President Obama and the Democrats. Traditionally, the party controlling the White House loses seats in midterm elections; the Republicans in 2002 scored the first party-in-power gain in a president’s first midterm election since 1934. (The Democrats scored an unexpected gain in the 1998 elections.)
But I think that there’s more involved. If 1994 was an outsized, staggering midterm loss for the Democrats, that loss was fueled by specific things: the failing Clinton health care proposals, gun control legislation and tax increases.
Today we’re looking at a (hopefully) failing Obama health care proposal and either large tax increases or hugely expanding deficits — if not both. The Van Jones debacle, with other appointees like Cass Sunstein and Mark Lloyd awaiting their turns in the bullseye, They aren’t exactly the Lani Guinier – Bill Lann Lee — Joycelyn Elders types of appointments that President Clinton made, but protracted battles over President Obama’s advisers, and the keeping of leftist radicals in the public eye, weakens the Administration nevertheless. In 1993-94, the internet was in its infancy, and it was primarily the efforts of conservative talk radio that pushed the case. Today we have the internet, which allows conservatives a broader range of weapons against our friends on the left, but concomitantly allows our friends on the left a form of defense they lacked in 1993-94, when there really was no liberal counterbalance to Rush Limbaugh.
Our friends on the left know this, of course, which is why they are fighting back, hard. But it seems to me that there is one big tipping point: the Obama health care policies. If we can delay passage from 2009 into 2010, we might defeat them altogether, and if we can defeat them altogether, Republicans could win.
It wasn’t so very long ago that our friends on the left looked at the huge Democratic victories of 2008, and were telling us that the Republican Party was dead, dead, dead! Now, they’re running scared.
The GOP had a real winner when “Barefoot Boy from Wall Street” Wendell Willkie stampeded a convention with hired demonstrators. Some savior. He went off to form the Liberal Party of New York before croaking.
What was the legacy of Ike? He was loved by the people but did he start a movement?
McCain was the darling of the mushy moderates and his move to bring Palin on board was a move of desperation.
Who would draw more people at a Delaware Lincoln Day dinner?
a. John McCain
b. Tom Ridge
c. Sarah Palin
We need a Goldwater, a person of integrity whose entire life has not been spent at the public trough and trying to pretend to be all things to all people.
Which means, Art, no one in politics currently.
But it seems to me that there is one big tipping point: the Obama health care policies. If we can delay passage from 2009 into 2010, we might defeat them altogether, and if we can defeat them altogether, Republicans could win.
Yup.
22,000 Americans a year.
Wow. This is pathetic.
You all want to see Healthcare defeated so the Republicans can win the next election…OK? But what about those who need healthcare? Even Republicans.
It’s all about winning…but nothing about what the people need. That is sad and pathetic in a way.
Hey, deborah, did you know everyone in the US gets healthcare already? Did you also know my sister-in-law, a Czech national who was an RN there and had to take extra classes to become an RN here, had absolutely zero respect for medicaid-card-carrying idiots who walked into her emergency room with a headache? Did you know my sister-in-law, who started her life in a Communist country, told those medicaid-card-carrying idiots to get out of her emergency room, drive across the street to the grocery store, and buy some aspirin themselves?
I’m one of the lucky ones. I have health insurance.
Oops, I lost my health insurance back in November, so I do not have any health insurance. And if ObamaNation wants to count on my vote for forcing my neighbors to pay for my government-mandated gynecological insurance, they have another thing coming.
Right, Phoenician, the Repubs hope the health care improvement initiative fails, even though 70% of Americans think that our health care system is broken and needs fixing. So the Repubs are not on the right side of this one.
The Dems may well not get the package that the House has, but they will get a package passed, which will be a step in the right direction, waiting for later improvement.
I also think folks blame the Repubs for the economic mess we are in, and will not forgive them as the Dems will certainly campaign on that issue and on what they have tried to do to avoid a great depression and bring us back to jobs and growth, so far reasonably successful with no Repub support but with a lot of carping and wishing that we had done nothing. This is Repubs in touch with reality?
Finally, I read this as Repub wishful thinking by a pollster who always leans to the Right anyway.
Art Downs says the Repubs need a “Goldwater”. Well you don’t have one, because your party is run by the fringe elements which are highly unlikely to win elections because their strategy and tactics are so abhorrent to most, especially the young and the minorities. I know that come 2010, I’ll be out there just like I was for Obama and other Dems I admired last time around, and an occasional Repub too! I would think there will be plenty of the same mind as mine.
Right, Phoenician, the Repubs hope the health care improvement initiative fails, even though 70% of Americans think that our health care system is broken and needs fixing
Well, the American health care system is killing off about 22,000 Americans a year unnecessarily, compared to those of other countries. Which means, by hoping it’s delayed for a couple of years, Dana wants over 40,000 Americans to die for his political ends.
He’s about 6 times as anti-American as Al Qaeda.
Your assumption, Perry, is that any health care reform is good health care reform. The American people do, by a wide margin, think that something needs to be done, but once they see the details of what is proposed, support tends to drop off drastically.
Let’s be honest about this one, Perry: you want the federal government to pass something, even if it isn’t a good or workable plan, because you think that eventually they’ll have to fix that with more and more government involvement. Thing is, 5/6 of Americans already have health care coverage, and we’d rather not see the government foul it up.
Might be a hard sell, Perry: after the Democrats took charge, and the President claimed that he was leading us out of the recession, the August unemployment rate climbed to 9.7%.
While I’m sure that the Democrats will try to blame everything on the Republicans, come the 2010 electiuons, the Democrats will have been in power for two years; it’ll be their baby then.
Your assumption, Perry, is that any health care reform is good health care reform.
Right now, it looks like it’s been compromised down to bad health care reform.
Congratulations, it looks like you’ve won.
22,000 Americans per year,…
Ca we really trust health care to folks with the USPS mindset?
If I want a package to arrive on time, I use UPS for FedEx. I have not used parcel post since I was a teen.
Well, okay, but the other 21,999 Americans represent a loss for the US.
So do a million aborted babies, but who’s counting Mr. Morality.
As you know, JohnC, I vigorously oppose abortion.
However, you support the death penalty and wars of aggression, Mr. Morality!
Dana: “…but once they see the details of what is proposed, support tends to drop off drastically.”
Let’s at least wait for the President’s speech on Wednesday, then see the final bill following Senate-House reconciliation.
“Might be a hard sell, Perry: after the Democrats took charge, and the President claimed that he was leading us out of the recession, the August unemployment rate climbed to 9.7%.”
That’s certainly true, but unemployment rose less than any month so far this year. Is that progress? I hope so. But please, Dana, don’t forget the stock market recovery, up over 50% since March. Did you forget to give Obama at least a little bit of credit for that?
“While I’m sure that the Democrats will try to blame everything on the Republicans, come the 2010 electiuons, the Democrats will have been in power for two years; it’ll be their baby then.”
I agree. But the Repubs have to clean up their act and get some reasonable spokespersons to express their views, because this vociferous and loud approach by the fringe minority, if it continues, is not going to impress as many voters as you might like. Isn’t it time for sensible Repubs to repudiate these people?
I note that nobody on here seems too worried about the 22,000 dead Americans, due to neglect, that Phoenician has thrown up at us here. And he has not even mentioned those who suffer due to too little health care, or the over 50% of bankruptcies that have resulted from families being overwhelmed by medical costs. Don’t these things matter to any of you Repubs/Conservatives on here?
Presumably they think this guy is a chump and a fool.
I support the death penalty. I support it being used in cases of rape (first offense). I can give Biblical references for such. I can also give Biblical references showing an unborn child is indeed a human life, separate from the mother who is carrying the child. There is no disconnect. Aborting a baby is murdering an innocent person. Executing a murderer or a rapist is executing a horrible felon. The two life-ending situations are not, under any terms, analogous. So you can throw that false premise out the window in your endeavor to find unsound arguments.
And if you want to talk about neglect, talk about Oregon’s state-run healthcare system. They refused to pay for someone’s cancer treatment but told that person, in an official letter, that they could pay for his physician-assisted suicide. And that was all over the radio and the blogosphere and maybe even some state-run media accidentally picked it up.
Amazing that the criminal Oregon state-run healthcare system wanted to kill someone, due to financial reasons, but an evil capitalist pharmaceutical company opted to cover the costs.
John H.
And if you want to talk about neglect, talk about Oregon’s state-run healthcare system. They refused to pay for someone’s cancer treatment but told that person, in an official letter, that they could pay for his physician-assisted suicide. And that was all over the radio and the blogosphere and maybe even some state-run media accidentally picked it up.
Wasn’t Dr. Kavarkian charged with murder for assisted suicide? Whoever wrote the letter in Ora-Gone! should be charged with attempted murder.
. I can also give Biblical references showing an unborn child is indeed a human life, separate from the mother who is carrying the child.
I can give Biblical references supporting slavery and the killing of fortunetellers. The Bible isn’t a credible source for morality unless you explain your selective consideration.
November could send some powerful messages in states with off-year elections.
A lot of Democrats were able to run as ‘moderates’ and win in marginal districts. How long can some of these ‘tinted dogs’ survive?
Perry said:
“However, you support the death penalty and wars of aggression, Mr. Morality!”
I do Not support the death penalty. I do Not believe government should kill it’s citizens. I do Not believe in “wars of aggression”. I do believe that once in a war the only acceptable outcome is victory.
I was against both the Afgan and Iraq wars. But once our country committed to them my belief is we broke it now it is our duty to fix it.
“I note that nobody on here seems too worried about the 22,000 dead Americans, due to neglect, that Phoenician has thrown up at us here. And he has not even mentioned those who suffer due to too little health care, or the over 50% of bankruptcies that have resulted from families being overwhelmed by medical costs. Don’t these things matter to any of you Repubs/Conservatives on here?”
That’s because just like the “47 million Americans without health care” mantra it is a manipulated statistic. That’s why he throws it out there. He makes a claim that can’t be disproven. These could be “street people” who lead a less than healthy life and died under a bridge but which people with agendas spin to show a lack of health care. They had a lack of food, clothing and shelter also, but all were available had they seeked them out.
And “those who suffer” needn’t. Go to a freekin’n hospital, ass hole! (not you, them). And those 50% of bankruptcies could have purchased low cost catastrophic coverage but didn’t. When does the responsability of the individual ever step in, Perry? Why is it my duty to cover blu and aphreal? Aphreal once stated she couldn’t afford health insurance but couldn’t qualify for Medicaid. Perhaps the qualification for Medicaid should be addressed? Or perhaps she needs to realign her priorities and try to buy her own health insurance.
Perry, we need health insurance reform. We need tort reform. We need to crack down on fraud, waste and abuse. We need portable insurance. We need tax incentives to individuals. We need the ability of small businesses to form groups to lower costs. What we don’t need is Barney Frank running our health care. There is a huge difference between health insurance and health care. You have allowed lefists who are interested in the power they derive from talking over the health care industry to cloud the issue. Keep focused, it’s health insurance reform we need. We already have great health care.
I guarantee blu doesn’t run to Canada for medical care. She wants to stay here and get the best care (my) money can buy her.
Just as a side note, I provide contributory health insurance through Humana to my full time employees. None, zero, nada of my male employess between the ages of 21 and 35 avail themselves of this coverage. Only two of my female employees do. The two who do are single moms with kids and want the coverage for their kids. Now I could pull their coverage and tell them to get SCHIP for their kids and I’ll save about $400 a month. I don’t because my private coverage is so superior to SCHIP they would scream bloody murder if I tried. Besides, that’s a beni they get for being good employees and they love it. Keeps them with me instead of going to my competition just like paid vacations and Christmas bonuses.
Over the last to weeks I’ve been recruiting for new expanded hours. My beni’s including health insurance played a key roll in getting several excellent hirees.
JohnC: “I do Not support the death penalty. I do Not believe government should kill it’s citizens. I do Not believe in “wars of aggression”.”
Sorry for my assumption about you, John; looks like we are on the same page on this one.
“I do believe that once in a war the only acceptable outcome is victory.”
Problem is, in our wars against insurgencies and terrorists, we are having great trouble defining victory, therefore we are left with trying to develop an exit strategy, which is what Bush finally did re Iraq, and which Obama has yet to do re Afghanistan. As I’ve said before, we don’t belong in either country. Instead, we should defend ourselves against terror by focusing our resources on all aspects of homeland security.
On the insurance issue, any one of your uninsured male employees would probably be on the dole if any catastrophic medical issue ever hits them, meaning that by default the rest of us pay their bills through higher insurance premiums and higher medical costs in general. This is why I like the idea of mandated health insurance, even for the young males who could care less.
Your contributary health insurance, costing $400 per month, is generous in that most in your industry probably provide none. It must be said as well, that each of these women probably is liable for paying an additional $400 or more, since the average premium per family runs something like $13k per year, depending on the coverage. In addition to their contribution, they are still responsible for deductibles and co-pays, and still subject to being dropped at the whim of the insurance company, which is why we need to mandate coverage for pre-existing conditions and disallow dropping coverage when illness strikes.
Incidentally, I have a concern with the idea of taxing an employee the employer contribution for health insurance, which in your case would be the $400 per month which you contribute for them. If that happened, would you increase their salary to cover their new tax liability?
“Perry, we need health insurance reform. We need tort reform. We need to crack down on fraud, waste and abuse. We need portable insurance. We need tax incentives to individuals. We need the ability of small businesses to form groups to lower costs.
I certainly do agree with each of these needs, John!
Actually, Perry, both of these are young ladies and their premiums are low even at the family rate. My company does a 60/40 split with us paying the 60 and the insured the40. So their total premium is about $350 per month which I pay $200 each. Office visits are $30 per and the annual deductable PER FAMILY (not per person) is $1000. There is no co-pay. In Pennsylvania you can’t be dropped on “the whim” of an insurance company. A company would have to drop ALL isureds in your classification in the state which they are wunwilling to do. We’ve never experienced an unpaid or disputed claim so far.
Pre-existing conditions are another thing all together. In PA they will take pre-existing conditions but exclude coverage for said condition only, for a period of time (usually 2 years). Other states vary. I myself had a 2 year exclusion for my COPD. Now I’m covered.
To ask an insurance company to in effect “buy a claim” with pre-existing conditions is a poor use of resources. This is one area I think needs govt. attention. I’ll continue but gotta go, sorry.
I would rather worry about all the people dieing each year due to state-sponsored and barely-monitored euthanasia than whether someone living under a bridge gets semi-annual check-ups on my dime.
That’s because just like the “47 million Americans without health care” mantra it is a manipulated statistic. That’s why he throws it out there. He makes a claim that can’t be disproven.
The origin of this statistic is here. Note pages 4-5 where it discusses criticisms and further research exploring the topic and suggesting alternative figures.
John does not give any reason to consider it manipulated; he disagrees with it, and therefore it is wrong. Or rather he says it is wrong, and uses an ad hominem to cover up the fact that he has no actual proof. That’s the way wingnuts work.
Perry, we need health insurance reform. We need tort reform. We need to crack down on fraud, waste and abuse. We need portable insurance. We need tax incentives to individuals. We need the ability of small businesses to form groups to lower costs.
In those states that implemented health care reforms earlier, premiums went down not at all.
Note, for example, reasoned dissent, in which “He estimates that no more than 9,000 people die each year who would otherwise survive if they had health insurance.”
So, that’s “only” three World Trade Towers worth of Americans killed each year according to the critics, instead of seven or eight.
Oh, I’m sorry – the critics who actually have looked and have a right to an opinion. And then there’s wingnuts like John.
Read and learn, John.
Republicans will consistently lose if they knowingly or unknowingly keep supporting those agendas that harm people, and maintain the “Republican team player” blind devotion, despite facts, ignoring the growing awareness of the public, and the intimate relationship with corporations Rs hold. Not to say that the Dems are so pure, it’s just that there’s a whole lot more R’s doing the dirty work for the corporate fat cats. Back scratchin’ party, serious detriment to our well being.
You want to know about “death panels” ?
http://www.afterdowningstreet.org/node/45828
Pho and blu. We all know the trick. Pick a number from one to…….47 million. You are all propagandists. I don’t have the time to refute you, I’m too busy paying your bills. Ass holes. Like Pico, Hitchcock, Eric, etc. We ACTUALLY work for a living you, dousch bags. By the way, why does Pho care about health care in the US? He doesn’t pay for nor does he recieve it. It’s his Marxist agenda.
BTW, blu I assume you live in Texas (by the name) and you should be embarassed. No Texan ever thought about themselves, only about Texas. And Texan’s only think about America. Discraceful!
Pho and blu. We all know the trick. Pick a number from one to…….47 million. You are all propagandists. I don’t have the time to refute you, I’m too busy paying your bills. Ass holes. Like Pico, Hitchcock, Eric, etc. We ACTUALLY work for a living you, dousch bags.
Shorter John C: Since I realise that the facts are not on my side, i shall fall back on my default ad hominem that liberals do not work – despite already having had my ass kicked on this.
I’m too busy paying your bills.
How, exactly?
By the way, why does Pho care about health care in the US? He doesn’t pay for nor does he recieve it.
22,000 Americans a year.
I cannot argue tonight. Too any hours at work and not enough sleep. I know you don’t care but, one of my prep cooks cut off his thumb (about half) at 9AM. That is why I left so abruptly in the middle of a “thing”. I was at work all day, watching the feel? Perhaps trying to feel the feel of the restaurant. It was an accident and everyone is watching to see if I fire him. I won’t, only because I wasn’t there to see what happened. I must assume he was working according to rules. This is the first big accident I’ve had this year. Funny, happened when I was talking about health care. He’s okay but I hate these things. Just when I’m trying to enlarge the joint, shit happens. So, g’night.
I know you don’t care but, one of my prep cooks cut off his thumb (about half) at 9AM.
And I wouldn’t care because…? God, you’re a self-indulgent, whiny little asshole – he might have my sympathy if I knew him; you’d have none.
In NZ, he’d be fully covered as a matter of right. As is, people in his position have wound up trying to sue their employers to cover expenses. The system you live under is not dictated by natural law
When I said “you wouldn’t care” I meant as it related to my business, not as a human being, Doofus.
The cook, Jason is reporting to work today with his newly attached finger. He won’t take “Stay home” for an answer. Tuff kid. By the way he was fully covered under Workmen’s Comp (which I pay).
And for your info Natural Law states survival of the fitest. Health care is not mentioned.
“And I wouldn’t care because…? God, you’re a self-indulgent, whiny little asshole – he might have my sympathy if I knew him; you’d have none.”
So there it is, Perry. The extent of Pho’s faux empahty for you to see. He “MIGHT” have sympathy for Jason, but only if he “knew”him. He’d have none for me ’cause he don’t like JohnC. Yet he keeps parroting his 22,000 Americans……. crap. So now you see it’s not to improve our health care system. He has no sympathy for anyone he does not know. It’s an agenda.
Just so you know I’m a whiny BIG asshole.
He “MIGHT” have sympathy for Jason, but only if he “knew”him.
That’s right – there are 6 billion people in the world. On any one day, that means 50,000 of them are dying, and somewhere in the order of 100,000 of them are being maimed. I have to deal with co-workers who just lost their husbands and family members with strokes – I haven’t noticed you expressing any sympathy for them. The difference is that I’m not so self-absorbed and whinythat I *expect* you to express sympathy for people you don’t know as individuals.
He’d have none for me ’cause he don’t like JohnC.
No, it’s because you’re a self-indulgent, whiny little asshole. I also don’t like emo-kids and the Phelps family.
Republicans need to start listening to both sides and use their own DORMANT capacity for objectivity and discernment, engaging their long DORMANT honor, and consider what’s best for humanity, in our country and the rest of the world, before they “rah-rah-rah, for the US and GOP” and put all else on the back burner.
This is relevant:
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2009/09/acorn_turns_in_fla_workers_on_voter_fraud_charges.php?ref=fpc
Oh, getting off their high horse, acting like they are so morally superior only makes the word HYPOCRITE glow on their forehead, in neon. EXAMPLE…
http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/09/gop_lawmakers_graphic_sex-bragging_caught_on_tape.php
I have some friends from Texas, and they live here in the Pacific Northwest now, as do I, and are as aghast at the ignorant, Robotican health insurance scripted rhetoric (bringing about the loss of American lives) that those like yourself John C, foolishly regurgitate, because you’ve apparently abandoned your own discernment, and regard for human life (except for the fetuses of course, it’s after the birth takes place you don’t give a d@*%#).
Phoe always has credible sources to back up what he/she(?) says. If they are not posted, just ask, and you will get them made available to you.
One thing about the facts and reality in general, there’s always a Leftist “slant”. But keep blathering on from the Righties side, and the corporate fat cats will make out well, at the cost of human lives. Corporations lie, and they own media networks to do it most efficiently, chump!
John Hitchcock:
Hey, deborah, did you know everyone in the US gets healthcare already?
Uh. No. Especially since I’m uninsured and live in Ohio, the heartland of this country and no, everyone does not get healthcare already. I know I don’t. And I know people who are insured who get more than screwed by their so called HMO’s.
Why keep spouting this ridiculous untruth?
Deborah, I live in the heart of Ohio and am uninsured. If necessary, I can go to the hospital and get health care. And you did bypass all the other information I gave you in that comment where you drew that quote.
If necessary, I can go to the hospital and get health care
In the same sense, perhaps, that you can run into a bus shelter and get housing…
Yo, brain dead, there are laws in the US that require health care. You would know this if you were actually paying attention. Perhaps in NZ, hospitals can turn people away if they don’t have a Diners Card, but not in the US.
Yo, brain dead, there are laws in the US that require health care.