From Smitty on “The Other McCain:”
Posted on | October 2, 2011 | 25 Comments and 10 Reactions
Back in July, before Solyndra, I ‘boldly’ predicted that BHO wouldn’t complete the term, or run for re-election, for that matter. Now, watch the near-term future unfold. As the USS Obama capsizes and works on its submarine impression, the Left, casting about for someone, anyone, who is both
- reliable, in the sense that they can be counted upon to maintain the Progressive status quo, and
- has enough name recognition to run for President, and
- is a big enough megalomaniac for the task.
I know, you think I’m going to say ‘Dennis Kucinich’, but really: we mean Hillary here, don’t we? The question is when?
Peering into my crystal bollocks, I don’t see how the administration survives the mounting tsunami of crap past the end of this month. So, I’m saying that, by 01 November, Silent Hillary shall have been identified as the Great White Democrat Hope. Literary allusion hyperlink provided in advance to deflect accusations of raaaaacism and anti-fat chick bias with that might come from a snarky sharky reference.
Of course, I had to check out The Other McCain, because John Hitchcock’s Truth Before Dishonor got some link-love there, and it certainly wouldn’t hurt for CSPT to get a few back-links as well.
Smitty is hardly the first political wonk to suggest that President Obama will decide not to run for re-election, based on his dramatically dropping poll numbers, but he is the first person I’ve seen to put an actual date — 1 November 2011 — on President Obama’s predicted withdrawal. We have, therefore, a hard mark, a point at which we can say, definitively, that the prediction was either right or wrong.
As for me, I don’t think that he will withdraw. President Lyndon Johnson announced, on 31 March 1968, that he would neither seek nor accept the nomination of the Democratic Party for another term as President. His renomination was very probable, if he had sought it, because he thoroughly controlled the party machinery, something far more important in 1968 than it was in, say, 2008, when the party leadership couldn’t deliver the nomination for Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY). But President Johnson also knew that he’d have a very rough time of it in the general election, with Governor George Wallace (D-AB) siphoning off Democratic votes in the Solid South, and the Vietnam War becoming increasingly unpopular.
The point is that President Johnson could take his decision with just a hair over seven months until election day, because the nomination calendar was not so greatly stretched out. For President Obama to take a decision not to run, based on a foreseen probability of being defeated in the general election, he really would have to take it by the date Mr McCain specified, five months earlier than President Johnson could, for any serious Democratic candidate to have a reasonable chance to mount a campaign. But with a whole year before the general election (at that point), President Obama could also have some hope that things will turn around in the economy, sufficiently to give him a chance at re-election. Once we get into 2012, it becomes almost impossible for President Obama to decide to withdraw without totally sabotaging the possibility of the Democratic nominee winning in the general election.
But it seems to me that there is another reason. When I read what some of our friends on the left write, I see an amazing pigheadedness, a will not to believe that any of the Republican candidates are actually serious candidates. They constantly deride the Republican candidates — with the exception of Jon Huntsman, who has no more chance of winning the nomination than I have — as just total losers and weirdos and freaks, even though every one of them other than Herman Cain has actually won elections (plural) in the past. Rick Perry has been elected Governor of Texas thrice. Michele Bachmann and Mitt Romney and Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman have all presented themselves to the voters in the past, and have all won elections. That, in itself, makes them serious candidates,period. Yet, if President Obama is foolish enough to believe the political talking points his party and his campaign send out, he’s running against nobodies; that would be a very foolish assumption, but it’s one which would nudge him toward running again, and not dropping out.
Further, even though I’ve never met President Obama, and certainly don’t know him personally, from what I have seen of him on television and read about him in the news, it is my opinion that he really does believe that he can, and will, turn this campaign around, and that he really does believe that he’s the best man for the job, and he’s quite frankly baffled that he isn’t viewed as a better President.
Finally, it seems to me that President Obama, specifically, and many of the Democratic leaders more generally, simply cannot and do not understand how anyone from their coalition, women, teachers, blue-collar workers, blacks, Hispanics, homosexuals, welfare recipients, you name it, could ever vote Republican. Yet they had a real clue — or should have — last month, when Jews, normally the second most loyal Democratic demographic, deserted the Democratic nominee in the New York 9th congressional district special election, electing a Republican to that seat for the first time since the 1920 general election. I think that they are genuinely astonished that President Obama is perceived so poorly, and that their party did so badly in the 2010 elections. That they are using the spectacles on the left through which to view their party and its chances seems obvious.
Well, no one knows the future. It is always possible that the economy will make an unexpected turn-around, with sufficient economic growth to be appreciated, and a significant decrease in the unemployment rate, enough for President Obama to be re-elected. Such doesn’t seem very probable at the moment, but you just never know. And if President Obama isn’t doing too well in the opinion polls right now, there’s only one poll that actually counts for anything, and that won’t be taken for another thirteen months.
UPDATE (John Hitchcock): Linked by The Other McCain.